Conspiracy theory du jour: Wagging the dog
The news-sphere is abuzz with reports of a "leak" from French intelligence that Osama bin Laden died last month due to typhoid. It's time to reveal my own personal conspiracy theory: Yes, Osama is dead; but he died five years ago, after the initial US invasion into Afganistan, at the attack on the Tora Bora caves complex. Since then, all "appearances" of Osama, in audio and infrequent video, occuring at conveniently timed intervals have been produced and orchestrated by the AV technogeeks at the super-secret CIA (or even NSA) PsyOps division. As any regular watcher of Alias or Mission Impossible can tell you: faking a voice or video recording is as easy as, well, American pie. A February 1999 Washington Post article posits the technology exists: "Digital morphing -- voice, video, and photo-- has come of age, available for use in psychological operations. PSYOPS, as the military calls it, seek to exploit human vulnerabilities in enemy governments, militaries and populations to pursue national and battlefield objectives." ("When Seeing and Hearing isn't Believing").
Why do this? Perhaps the US intel community decided that death at the hands of the American army would turn bin Laden into a martyr; and create a potential rallying call for future terrorists. A seemingly alive, but increasingly debilitated Osama, who slowly peters out over an extended time-- yet can still pop up every now and then (especially when the administration is losing support over its "War on Terror")-- is the perfect boogie man.
Like any good conspiracy theory, the evidence is found in what is not said, when news appears, and from what sources it appears.
The core of the administration, including Bush, has avoided mention of Osama since the shift of attention from Afghanistan, where the supposed aim was to go after the mastermind of 9/11 and (according to Dubya) "capture him dead or alive." Yet, since December 2001, Osama's name has been rarely spoken by the Bush team-- only when directly questioned by reporters as to whether bin Laden still mattered. Instead, there have been increasing (and badly bungled) attempts to tie the war in Iraq with the "War on Terror" that was initiated in response to the attacks by al Qaida. On cue, bin Laden audio messages, which had in the past denounced the Sadaam Hussein regime, suddenly shift gears to provide the evidence needed to connect terrorism with Iraq. Somehow, though, with all the amazing Enemy of the State survelliance and tracking capability at our disposal, Osama never was captured.
In March 2002, six months into the Afghan invasion, Bush was asked at a rare press conference about the seeming lack of attention to bin Laden:
Q Mr. President, in your speeches now you rarely talk or mention Osama bin Laden. Why is that? Also, can you tell the American people if you have any more information, if you know if he is dead or alive? Final part -- deep in your heart, don't you truly believe that until you find out if he is dead or alive, you won't really eliminate the threat of --
THE PRESIDENT: Deep in my heart I know the man is on the run, if he's alive at all. Who knows if he's hiding in some cave or not; we haven't heard from him in a long time. And the idea of focusing on one person is -- really indicates to me people don't understand the scope of the mission....
So I don't know where he is. You know, I just don't spend that much time on him, Kelly, to be honest with you...
Q But don't you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won't truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don't know where he is. I -- I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban...
Three years later, in June 2005, Porter Goss, then head of CIA responded to questions about the location of Osama: "I have an excellent idea of where he is. What's the next question?" Goss, as a Republican Congressman from Florida and chair of the House Intelligence Committee, along with Bob Graham, the ranking Democrat from Florida, led the "Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001." In September 2004, Goss was tapped to become the CIA director after expressing partisan support for the administration, refusing to engage in "finger pointing" as he called it. Less than two years later, in May 2006, Goss suddenly resigned saying that his departure was just "one of those mysteries."
Until October 2004, only audiotapes purported to be of Osama were released. But then, a stilted videotape showed up, just prior to the Presidential election, aimed squarely at US citizens. According to Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Ron Suskind, writing in his new bestseller, The One Percent Doctrine, the appearance gave Bush's campaign a much needed boost:
"Their [the CIA's] assessments, at day's end, are a distillate of the kind of secret, internal conversations that the American public [was] not sanctioned to hear: strategic analysis. Today's conclusion: bin-Laden's message was clearly designed to assist the President's reelection.
"At the five o'clock meeting, [deputy CIA director] John McLaughlin opened the issue with the consensus view: 'Bin-Laden certainly did a nice favor today for the President.'"
Technorati Tags: Osama bin Laden, Conspiracy, Wag the Dog
From an April 2006 BBC article:
Timeline: The search for Bin Laden
DECEMBER 2001
US forces apparently intercept radio messages in which Bin Laden is directing troops from Afghanistan's mountainous region of Tora Bora, but the trail goes cold and US officials admit they have no information on the al-Qaeda leader's whereabouts.
Meanwhile, al-Jazeera television airs footage of Bin Laden in which he refers to the attacks.
NOVEMBER 2002
In a tape broadcast on Arabic TV station al-Jazeera, Bin Laden refers to attacks in Bali, Yemen and the Moscow theatre siege which had recently taken place.
FEBRUARY 2003
An audio tape purporting to be from Bin Laden calls for attacks on US and British targets if Iraq is attacked. The US-led invasion of Iraq takes place the following month.
APRIL 2003
An audio recording said to be of Bin Laden, in which he calls for attacks on the governments of the Gulf states, is released by the Associated Press news agency.
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2003
In audio tapes aired by al-Jazeera television station, Bin Laden praises the 11 September hijackers and calls for new attacks on the US.
JANUARY 2004
Al-Jazeera releases an audio tape in which Bin Laden talks about the capture of Saddam Hussein and attacks Arab states for backing the US-led war on Iraq.
OCTOBER 2004
A Bin Laden videotape surfaces just days before the US presidential election.
In the tape, aired on the Arabic television station al-Jazeera, Bin Laden says the reasons behind the 9/11 attacks are still present and he threatens fresh attacks on the US, whoever is elected.
It is Bin Laden's clearest claim of responsibility so far for the 2001 attacks.
In an embarrassment for the Pakistani president, al-Jazeera says the tape was delivered to its Islamabad bureau.
DECEMBER 2004
An audio tape attributed to Osama Bin Laden calls on Iraqis to boycott January's election.
The voice, whose identity cannot be confirmed, names the Jordanian-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as "emir" of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
MARCH 2005
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf says Pakistani troops had their best chance of capturing Bin Laden from May-July 2004, after the army launched an offensive along the border with Afghanistan. But he says the trail has now gone cold.
In the US, President George W Bush makes a rare mention of Bin Laden, saying the US is "working day and night" to bring him to justice.
JANUARY 2006
After a silence of more than a year, al-Jazeera aired an audio tape which CIA analysts say was made by al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.
In it, the speaker said new attacks on the US were being planned, but offered a "long-term truce" to the Americans, an offer the US quickly rejected.
APRIL 2006
In an audio tape attributed to Osama Bin Laden, the speaker cites the cutting of Western funding to the Hamas-led Palestinian government as proof of a "Zionist-crusader war against Islam".
Western involvement in the troubled Darfur region of Sudan is also criticised in the tape, aired by Arabic TV station al-Jazeera.
